Evolution of a SHTF armed conflict

[DerBiermeister]

SF guy suggested on another thread that I start this thread .. with this theme as an opener:

I was thinking about this while out on a walk today. I was surveying the territory while walking and thinking about a realistic SHTF situation. In just about every catastrophic scenario that will quickly evolve to a breakdown in society (anarchy), I see eventual massive armed conflict. It might be a race war. It might be an ideological war or even a class war. It might be a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. It might be some natural calamity on the scale that we've never seen before, such as being hit by an asteroid or Yellowstone blowing its top.

I think we would see many different phases of armed threat over a long period of time. IMO .. and one that is based on little more than just gut feel ...... I think the first couple of days would be a panicked public just trying to "get away" from whatever disaster has struck them. While some would be armed, I doubt if they would be "well armed" and/or well coordinated.

Those who have planned for this and will defend their property will be much better armed. Advantage goes to the defender.

However, as time goes on, weeks and months going by, I think the threat would be ever increasing groups of well-armed invaders -- and folks like me would start coming up against 50 cal machine guns mounted on jeeps, RPGs, all kinds of nasty shit, etc., etc. Any advantage I might have had in the early goings will have been erased.

Therefore, I just hope whatever calamity comes ... is short lived. Those of you that can bug out to some extremely isolated places like the mountains in Wyoming (as example), will probably do ok and miss most of the action. But the majority of us are going to be in the middle of the mess, close to metropolitan areas with hoards of people. I have several (4-5) close neighbors who are well armed and we've already had some -- call it initial -- discussions on defending our neighborhood. But being realistic, as well-armed as we are, I don't see us doing very well as time evolves.

[Montana Rancher]

I know a bit about Virginia, and IMO in a highly populated area like Richmond if you can make it the first 90 days you probably have about 80% of your problems solved. The amount of people dying from disease, hunger and dehydration will be staggering beyond belief.
Your biggest threat will be surviving from all the disease from decaying bodies in your AO

But like I said, the first 90 days will count the most, after that you have some breathing room.

[Jeep]

I have conflicting thoughts, being from Long Becah Ce, half a million pop, mostly dirtbags, would, I just try to flee or would I thin the crop of nasties. Now that I am in rural, real rual Montana, I'll trust my base of friends. and let the fighting happen elsewhere

[OSFG]

In most all emergencies involving catastrophe, we see all available stores being ransacked or quickly bought out and violence ensuing on a small scale to get "enough" to tide folks over.

Take the recent riots and looting and see what happens when just a few dozens go lawless. The police "will not" mobilize in order to stop the ongoing efforts they instead can only move to attempt to direct its flow. But even then, a police force will not remain out in the open in full riot gear once rounds really start to come in. The will withdraw to a more secure perimeter which puts them in a defensive static position, or at least one with very little mobility and freedom of maneuver.

Streets will become hazardous to travel or clogged by folks attempting to get away. Cities will be worse than suburban areas, but suburban areas will be mired in folks who are trying to get away too.

Most violence will be random individual acts or small groups, and I agree with Bier...they will be untrained, and disorganized, but they will have no problem doing violence on you...but they are cowardly and will not attack a strong, well armed home when there will be many more that aren't. (Think about how the thugs attacked and pulled folks out of their cars, wieldeding guns, unopposed by the law or unarmed citizenry.

As things progress there will be some organization. Gangs may have access to a lot of the black market guns and arms and I suspect they will quickly lay hands on them. How much, hell I don't know, but I'd like any LEO's to tell me what they see when they take one down. Not to mention any arms/ammo the get from scavenging homes of people who were unable to get back home to recover their stash of weapons. (I think concealing the locations of ammo/weapons is worthwhile if you tend to be away from home a lot, as I am.

Depending on how severe the nation gets whether it be a complete loss of control of certain areas that they have given up in the initial stages of the unrest, which I have seen happen where a town falls to just a few dozen to hundreds of fighters, most have been only armed with a few mags of ammo and AK's, but their violence and willingness to do harm, puts people in such a scared and compliant state, there is usually very little push back from the towns once any semblance of law has been driven away. And they, the police, will depart if they are hit hard...as most anyone would do once they see that they are in an untenable position.

This in essence give's them time to maraud around doing whatever they like and fighting whoever they encounter within there area with a large force, and they will rally to take down lone or small defending persons. We have seen it in every conflict of a rebel or guerrilla force in every continent. Why because you have angered them by resisting, you will be made an example of, and they will want what they think must be worthwhile for anyone to die defending vice running away. They will overcome fear with being jacked up on drugs, or maybe just mob/gang mentality, or blood lust, or even trying to better their position within the crew they are with.

Anyone giving up can expect to be brutalized, because they do not want more members...they want your possessions, they want your women, for a short while, and they will eventually move on. I do not ever see them dragging sex slaves around with them, because they will get more, new, unused ones at the next place, and they wouldn't want the hassle of dealing with them. They usually leave them battered, beaten, often terribly abused and even tortured and dead if they are of a group that this particular group has animus towards. Say blacks versus whites, or muslim versus Christian. But believe me when I say, many , many folks will have in their minds that as long as they comply, these forces will take what they want and move on, so they do as they are told.

These are how I have seen things play out in many countries throughout the world. And do not think that they don't have guns in most of these countries. They have at least an AK for every male member of the compound in Afghanistan, but the fear of what the Taliban will do keeps them from opposing, not the actual fighting. They don't often fight even when they know that all the educated among them and the leaders among the town will be slaughtered...they just know that if they comply they have a better chance in living a little longer. This plays out all over the world currently. central America, south America, Africa, east Asia. so why do we think folks will react differently here if it comes to that.

I'm not trying to paint the most likely scenario, I am trying to show you glimpses of those I have seen and studied abroad and let you know, I do consider this a valid possibility, maybe not my most likely SHTF scenario, but one I make plans for none the less.

[OSFG]

I will follow up and add the above would not extend very long if the military were called in to restore order. But there would be continued violence on a small scale and they would come as new attacks where the military aren't or where they are weakest. The military would be able to prevent any massing of a scale to which the above mentioned. However you would be living in a martial law condition then and most likely they will come and take your weapons by force. leaving you completely dependent on them for protection. and I 'd bet a lot of money, you won't get them back very fast, if ever at all once the status is reverted back to civil authority.

[Txwheels]

I will follow up and add the above would not extend very long if the military were called in to restore order. But there would be continued violence on a small scale and they would come as new attacks where the military aren't or where they are weakest. The military would be able to prevent any massing of a scale to which the above mentioned. However you would be living in a martial law condition then and most likely they will come and take your weapons by force. leaving you completely dependent on them for protection. and I 'd bet a lot of money, you won't get them back very fast, if ever at all once the status is reverted back to civil authority.

IF, in a Martial law situation they come for my weapons, they better bring enough to do the job, because I will be giving them my weapons 1 piece of lead at a time!

[DerBiermeister]

However you would be living in a martial law condition then and most likely they will come and take your weapons by force. leaving you completely dependent on them for protection. and I 'd bet a lot of money, you won't get them back very fast, if ever at all once the status is reverted back to civil authority.



Now THAT is a damn scary thought -- and I admit, until just right now, I had not considered that outcome. But ... I think you are spot on. I think confiscation of all citizen weaponry would be Numbre Uno on the military's list of objectives. I mean ..... shit .... what are you going to do when an MRAP (Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected vehicles) rolls down your street, loaded with a half dozen tactically outfitted soldiers?

Crap ...... forget the zombies, after a couple of weeks, Martial Law and the military is going to be our biggest concern regarding keeping our arms.

[OSFG]

Let me add that my comments are not based off of any official knowledge of plans based on my association with the military past or present, nor is it steeped in Academia or political science degrees... or any other recognized educational course, other than my own thoughts of what could be possible based on what I have seen or been made privy to in other places. I don't want anyone to get the idea that I have some inside track on info because I do not. I just believe that what I have written could be a possibility if conditions where right...because it is historically recorded Human nature. Many people who are quite capable of showing that evolved human persona today, will rapidly devolve back into that savage, self serving, vengeful, power hungry, or brutal base self that we have seen time and time again throughout history.

[DerBiermeister]

Let me add that my comments are not based off of any official knowledge of plans based on my association with the military past or present, nor is it steeped in Academia or political science degrees... or any other recognized educational course, other than my own thoughts of what could be possible based on what I have seen or been made privy to in other places. I don't want anyone to get the idea that I have some inside track on info because I do not. I just believe that what I have written could be a possibility if conditions where right...because it is historically recorded Human nature. Many people who are quite capable of showing that evolved human persona today, will rapidly devolve back into that savage, self serving, vengeful, power hungry, or brutal base self that we have seen time and time again throughout history.

At least with this current, corrupt administration -- I think your assessment of what the military would do is the correct one. And not just the military -- we have all heard about the HUMONGOUS buildup by Homeland Security of ammunition and tactical vehicles. You can bet your last dollar, that everything in between of a tactical nature has also been purchased in staggering quantities.

I've never actually run across a Homeland Security Agent -- but I bet they will be para-military.

[Arklatex]

I am curious if any of this conflicts with the Oath of Enlistment. Defend the constitution from all threats, yet obey the orders from POTUS. What happens when the commander in chief issues orders that are unconstitutional. Does martial law suspend the bill of rights?

Martial law and gun confiscation... There are plenty of unregistered firearms in America and Id bet that people would not give up all their guns. I will fight to the death before anyone takes my grandfathers shotgun! What will happen when people refuse? Off to the camp for reeducation or death is my guess.

Another issue. Will the soldiers actually hang around to enforce a nationwide martial law? Id bet that many would go AWOL to go home and protect their families. Especially once they are given orders to confiscate weapons by any means necessary.

I guess it all depends on the severity of the event.

[OSFG]

I am curious if any of this conflicts with the Oath of Enlistment. Defend the constitution from all threats, yet obey the orders from POTUS. What happens when the commander in chief issues orders that are unconstitutional. Does martial law suspend the bill of rights?

Martial law and gun confiscation... There are plenty of unregistered firearms in America and Id bet that people would not give up all their guns. I will fight to the death before anyone takes my grandfathers shotgun! What will happen when people refuse? Off to the camp for reeducation or death is my guess.

Another issue. Will the soldiers actually hang around to enforce a nationwide martial law? Id bet that many would go AWOL to go home and protect their families. Especially once they are given orders to confiscate weapons by any means necessary.

I guess it all depends on the severity of the event.

I think with the patriot acts and essentially creating of an avenue to override posse comitatus, we know it is now legal to use the Military to aid law enforcement to include to make arrests. SO that is one obstacle down, there just needs to be conditions in which the local law enforcement become unable to maintain order. (I would assume a Governor would have to request the aid of the federal government first...but I think they will find away around that easy enough. Now as to the taking of weapons...I think that there will be built up enough concern from our soldiers of getting shot at that they would agree that "temporarily" taking weapons off the street in a specified area that they control is good, and they will return them after things settle. So I think overall most will not find it unreasonable. Take a look at our soldiers on post now. You cannot keep your weapons in the barracks. You cannot practice open carry on post where they live. You cannot conceal carry on post where many live day in and day out. You are subject to warrantless searches every single day, simply by driving on post. You cannot practice your right to protest on post. They have fostered a constitutional-free zone that most of these soldiers/marines work in every day. I think the cry of constitutional rights and our need to protect it vehemently has been muffled and subdued greatly within the forces. I think its also very easy to word smith current laws and patriot act verbiage to make something unconstitutional be lawful. They are certainly not the same thing anymore.

I think in the end, soldier will do as they are told. Some will agree with it, some will not, but they overall will do it.

[DerBiermeister]

I think in the end, soldier will do as they are told. Some will agree with it, some will not, but they overall will do it.


Yeah, I think at least for the first month or so.

This whole thing is going to fall under "the fog of war", meaning I don't think we can actually predict, with any certainty, what is going to happen IF the event lasts beyond a month or two. In the first few weeks, I also think the military will hold together.

[Jeep]

Someone posted a list on PF of what each county in the Nation received from the feds, let me be the first to tell you that the MRAP or "Bearcat" wasn't on the list for this county.

[Sparkyprep]

Someone posted a list on PF of what each county in the Nation received from the feds, let me be the first to tell you that the MRAP or "Bearcat" wasn't on the list for this county.

My county got two.

[Jeep]

OSFG just saying, the one that is here was not listed lol

[OSFG]

My county got two.


OSFG just saying, the one that is here was not listed lol


Oh, I see now what you were saying....so much for transparency, but if anyone believes in that in the Guvment then they should check out my bridge I'm trying to sell.

[pheniox17]

To the scenario...

Violence during a shtf event, we know its going to be extreme, but...

I can't see it getting to the "burbs" for at least a few days (if not longer) look at Ferguson... Its a perfect example of the evaluation of what to expect

But what happens once the city centres are out of supplies?? They will have to go further afield to replenish...

That immediately gives the bulk of us a basic tactical advantage... They will be getting desperate and they won't be in prime condition, hung over, hungry, wanting their next hit, dehydrated....

Those conditions do make them dangerous but you already have a advantage....

Then I would expect military involvement... But you military guys would know this, what will be the first important areas that they will be deployed?? It won't be every state, it won't be every city, it will be major assets and "important areas of interest"

So still in the "burbs" you most likely only see air assets for a long period of time (Katrina a example)
So the 90 days is a good time frame to attempt to hold out for, by then it will be over or it will only just have began...

But the other mental image of a 50cal on a jeep, I personally would expect that if a convoy/aid is going through the area or your too close to the city/high value areas...

Again another reason to have a bol, remote and secure...

This is just a opinion based on observations on USA events, some Australian events may trigger something similar but will end in either less bloodshed or UN involvement... (That's another factor for you guys to concider is UN involvement)

How to engage such a event... Idk, personally avoidance is the best solution... But there are times where avoidance is a joke

[Arklatex]

I think phen has hit on something important. Lack of manpower.

[OSFG]

Well, with slightly less than 500K army forces total...far fewer marines...and the large bases that they must secure in order to maintain their own footprint... The bulk of the Military foot print in every state will from the National Guard and reserve units, which will be command by the Governers. I think in most places this will resolve most SHTF issues without the total violation of our rights, with the exception of our liberal controlled states, where I do expect, as they did in Katrina, to seize weapons and do other unconstitutional actions. ANd the trouble will begin when folks fail to comply...you will be the extremist. But once they are federalized..commands come from elsewhere. ..and we know what the politicians do when they have total power... The patriot act was passed when we where not is disarray, just reeling from shock...imagine the laws to be passed when we are in disarray across the US and people are killing each other with guns...They will pass New gun laws immediately, with the promise that once the situation has resolved itself the temporary conditions will expire and our full rights returned.

We were promised something once that was to only be temporary as well, anyone remember what that was? Yep Federal income taxes...now the idiom is that the only two things guaranteed is death and taxes...so that is what temporary means to politicians...unless it's tax cuts...they are never permanent.

I agree that this escalation is far fetched to occur here. All of my points where that as we begin to become more of a 3rd world nation, we will act as other 3rd world nations do. And what I mentioned previously are things that have, are, and will happen again in them.

[Arklatex]

I just looked it up out of curiosity. According to Wikipedia the US Military has about 1.37 million folks on active duty. And another 850,000 on reserve. Ranked second to China. I know most of them are in support or logistical roles but in a pinch the military could use them to help enforce martial law. The same source listed over 140 million men and women between the ages of 18-49 as available for service. That is a lot of people. If only a quarter of that group was pissed off about martial law and armed that is still 35,000,000. However those people don't have the equipment like tanks and aircraft. I am also unsure if very many people would even resist, considering that Obama got REELECTED. Bunch of sheep.

As a side note, this is why nobody will ever be able to conventionally invade our country. Americans typically come together when we have a common enemy. With those numbers and the amount of guns in this country, nobody stands a chance to invade us.

[OSFG]

I just looked it up out of curiosity. According to Wikipedia the US Military has about 1.37 million folks on active duty. And another 850,000 on reserve. Ranked second to China. I know most of them are in support or logistical roles but in a pinch the military could use them to help enforce martial law. The same source listed over 140 million men and women between the ages of 18-49 as available for service. That is a lot of people. If only a quarter of that group was pissed off about martial law and armed that is still 35,000,000. However those people don't have the equipment like tanks and aircraft. I am also unsure if very many people would even resist, considering that Obama got REELECTED. Bunch of sheep.

As a side note, this is why nobody will ever be able to conventionally invade our country. Americans typically come together when we have a common enemy. With those numbers and the amount of guns in this country, nobody stands a chance to invade us.

Your probably more accurate with your active duty numbers. I used what I last knew and paid any attention too as well as the stated goal numbers I had heard being pushed for ( i.e. Obama reducing active duty numbers down, while increasing DHS numbers). and agree that the number of former, vastly out number the current active duty.

[pheniox17]

I just looked it up out of curiosity. According to Wikipedia the US Military has about 1.37 million folks on active duty. And another 850,000 on reserve. Ranked second to China. I know most of them are in support or logistical roles but in a pinch the military could use them to help enforce martial law. The same source listed over 140 million men and women between the ages of 18-49 as available for service. That is a lot of people. If only a quarter of that group was pissed off about martial law and armed that is still 35,000,000. However those people don't have the equipment like tanks and aircraft. I am also unsure if very many people would even resist, considering that Obama got REELECTED. Bunch of sheep.

As a side note, this is why nobody will ever be able to conventionally invade our country. Americans typically come together when we have a common enemy. With those numbers and the amount of guns in this country, nobody stands a chance to invade us.

YAY you ran some numbers

Around here there was some statistic for recruiting advertising, for every 1 combat person there is 7 in support

So that drops the numbers, fitness and skill levels of those 7 (I know of some that are not range qualified, or will come close to passing a fitness test)

Also let's say new York, what's the population?? 8.4 million??

With only 1.3 million active personal... That's a tough ask (OK I picked a large city that's mostly populated by sheep but a good example number wise)

But its great that others run numbers, if you find a FEMA map... Well a region would be doable with all avalible federal assets (again a opinion but stumbled across a photo and the sizes would match something like this)

[Smokin04]

Subbing...I'll reply when I get home from work...

[James m]

People make decisions based on information. Whether that's very little information or none at all, or what someone wants you to believe.

And on a separate issue, who's to say some foreign country isn't going to make a land grab. What with all of these people dead, a reduced population and lack of resources.

[OSFG]

I agree that if we had a major internal issue that created chaos throughout America, that we could see some initial additional agitation to maintain the destabilization and continue to degrade our ability to fight a war. I think initially that would be seen as grabs outside the contiguous 48 states, predominantly with some movements against our allies in Europe or the taking of countries by Russia, China, and North Korea such as South Korea, Ukraine and other former soviet bloc countries. Then as times got worse maybe a push into pacific islands and then maybe even into Alaska and Hawaii. But any attempt to do that quickly or to attack the CONUS would quickly rally sentiment to a common enemy and serve only to slow the internal conflict. It would be a matter of timing, but it could happen. I think Iran and others would quickly move to destroy Israel and there would begin an Islamic push across South western Asia and then into south eastern Europe, with Islamic disruption in England France, Germany to keep them from aiding in any way.

In all I worry that any foreign military actions done during a National catastrophe in the US could quickly lead to global war with all the various facets of previous conflicts converging. Religion, Geo-political positions, resource grabs, Ethnic cleansing, World domination...right on down to the tribal disputes and racial divides being ignited world wide. Because we must face the truth...our global economy is interconnected. And if we slip into financial collapse so to does the world and with that comes wars. However even without a financial collapse...our inability to unitedly confront enemies of our allies leaves them a target.

I again state, I do not think this is likely to occur, only a worse case scenario.

[Arklatex]

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/police-officers-per-capita-rates-employment-for-city-departments.html

Now let's look at police. According to this date from 2012 the rates of police per 10k citizens averaged 17 nation wide. That is 1 officer for nearly 600 people. Even combined with the military they are still completely outnumbered.

For the sake of discussion I think worst case scenario should be used. Grid down for whatever reason: emp, cyber attack etc.

I think yall are correct that most of the military and law enforcement will try to keep the peace and stay on the job. For awhile... Maybe 6 months? Eventually it will get so bad that they have to withdraw to one area of the country to protect the government. It will be a logistical nightmare keeping the troops supplied and morale will be low. Especially if the grid is down. Also in a grid down situation many will starve and be without lifesaving medication such as insulin. So they will be dealing with that situation as well. It will be complete and total chaos. Especially in the big cities.

[DerBiermeister]

I agree that if we had a major internal issue that created chaos throughout America, that we could see some initial additional agitation to maintain the destabilization and continue to degrade our ability to fight a war. I think initially that would be seen as grabs outside the contiguous 48 states, predominantly with some movements against our allies in Europe or the taking of countries by Russia, China, and North Korea such as South Korea, Ukraine and other former soviet bloc countries. Then as times got worse maybe a push into pacific islands and then maybe even into Alaska and Hawaii. But any attempt to do that quickly or to attack the CONUS would quickly rally sentiment to a common enemy and serve only to slow the internal conflict. It would be a matter of timing, but it could happen. I think Iran and others would quickly move to destroy Israel and there would begin an Islamic push across South western Asia and then into south eastern Europe, with Islamic disruption in England France, Germany to keep them from aiding in any way.

In all I worry that any foreign military actions done during a National catastrophe in the US could quickly lead to global war with all the various facets of previous conflicts converging. Religion, Geo-political positions, resource grabs, Ethnic cleansing, World domination...right on down to the tribal disputes and racial divides being ignited world wide. Because we must face the truth...our global economy is interconnected. And if we slip into financial collapse so to does the world and with that comes wars. However even without a financial collapse...our inability to unitedly confront enemies of our allies leaves them a target.

I again state, I do not think this is likely to occur, only a worse case scenario.


Geez, you're a real bundle of joy today! LOL :thewave: