Predictions, Problems, and Puzzles

[Just Sayin']

This was partly inspired by OSFG and Kanman, but it is something that I think the majority of us face when prepping. We have our predictions, we think we've solved all the problems, but in the end, it's still a puzzle that we don't know if we'll ever solve.

I'm going to try and break my thoughts into bite size chunks, so we can discuss a pretty complex problem set.

First, if you're prepping, you have to take a broader view of the problem. I live in the New Madrid fault zone. We don't prep because of that, we prep so that if anything happens, even if you throw in zombies, we have a better chance to survive. That is it. Am I prepared for everything that could be imagined? Nope, no gas masks here. But we've given ourselves a chance at least.

Second, we tend to overestimate our preps and capabilities. Guilty here. Our preps (by that I mean supplies, shelter, weapons etc.) will be the next currency, if the SHTF for real. I'm not an infantryman by trade, but defending a static location is pretty hard when being assaulted by a determined adversary. I know that my capability might be better than some, but at some point, we're going to be overrun if we stay in one place.

Third, what happens when the SHTF and you are away on a business trip, or at that great Aunt's funeral that you hardly knew? I don't know what the percentage would be, but quite a few of us are going to be caught out of pocket when it happens. Not just a days walk from all we've prepped for, but weeks and/or months away. What is the plan then? My daughter is in college 45 minutes away. Might as well be the moon without some thought and even then it's a crapshoot if we can meet up.

Fourth, if you bug out and have to survive in the elements with what you can carry or transport (pack animals, etc.) can you do it? What about providing security also? It's hard enough to survive mother nature, what are you going to do when someone is hunting you? How do you determine if a group that appears to be safe to approach is really safe?

Fifth, how knowledgeable are you? Can you fix things or people? What skills can you bring to the table? If things go really bad, you are going to have to be useful. I'm pretty sure that welfare will take a hit if things go bad.

To boil it down a bit, we don't really know what we're prepping for but have our predictions, but we are prepared as best as we can be, within our resources and financial ability. We have identified some of the problems, but not all, and at least addressed some of them. The puzzle part is sort of like buying a puzzle at a yard sale without the box. You don't know what it's going to look like, you don't know if you have all the pieces or even all the same pieces, and you've got to try and make it work.

It's not as simple as we think it is.

[pheniox17]

I disagree that prepping is complained, its quite simple really...

We all have unique hurdles to think of, and problems to think about... And problems to solve as we come across... Such as life...

From some examples given, have a plan, think about a ghb and other ways of doing things, that's where forums help as now we see some holes that need to be pluged

And if anyone meets a prefect prepper please let me know

[Kanman]

No one is ever completely ready. there is always something to do or provisions to add to. That is what I try to do for everyone, to expand their thought process on prepping. I never think I enough food, my girl friend says we have more than I think. We both have get home bags in our vehicles. If something bad happens while we are both at work, will we both be able to make it home to combine and get our plans going? Good question. I sincerely hope we never have to find out, but I am not holding my breath on it either. If you are not already crazy, prepping can sure make you that way.....lol

[Just Sayin']

I think that preppers in general, seem to believe that they have figured it all out ahead of time. That is just not the reality, although a large percentage would argue otherwise until hell freezes over.

Having a years supply of food, enough ammunition to kill every zombie on the Walking Dead, the latest, greatest underground bunker or whatever is really not going to cut it unless it is a short (and I mean 2-3 weeks short) term event. While it is possible to construct, stock and defend a location that is unassailable, it is beyond most of our means. That tells us that at some point, 3-4 weeks after the SHTF, we are going to have to bug out with whatever supplies and weapons we can actually transport. Otherwise, we'll just end up dying trying to defend our preps. At some point, you have to come to the realization that this is true for most of us. Ask OSFG or anyone else who has had to ruck everything they needed for a week in a hostile environment how easy it is. Ammo, water, food...How much are you willing to leave behind, so you and your family or group can survive another day? Most importantly, is what are you going to realistically take with you?

Start with knowledge. With the right knowledge, you and your family or group can make or procure shelter, water and food. If you haven't actually made a fire without a lighter, learn to do so. If you've never built a solar still or some other water procurement apparatus, do it now. Try grasshoppers or earthworms or your native plants while the emergency room is still open. Don't hunt? Start. Everything we can learn to do today, before we really need that information is what prepping is really about.

[Inor]

The one thing that struck me at a couple of the meet-ups I have had with you all: Both Just Sayin and Old SF Guy asked my what I would do if I were away from home on business when SHTF happened. It is a question that has bugged me for some time because I travel almost every week. But as I think about it, and consider the most probable situations we will have a short window of relative normalcy. Obviously, a major sun storm or other EMP, or full-out nuclear war, all bets are off. But if the dollar fails, it is not something that is going to filter its way from Wall Street and Washington DC to Main street in a day or two. And even when it does start to cause problems in day to day life, most folks will have a normalcy bias kick in for a few days. Thus, I think for most events we are likely to experience we will have a few days to a few weeks of relative normalcy to get where we need to be and get set up.

I think back to 9/11. I was home that week (thankfully), but I had several guys at various place around the country, including one working in the World Trade Center that day. They were able to get rental cars and get back to their homes in a few days. I am hopeful that when the wheels do finally come off, we will be able to recognize it soon enough to get where we need to be. If that is not possible, I may be screwed.

[Just Sayin']

I think you're right Inor, there will be a spell that you will have to take advantage of, particularly if you get caught out of pocket. That is one of the important things that we all have to consider. What is the rough plan when it happens? Me, if I were Inor, would know where the closest safe haven (fellow prepper or friend) was at any time during my travels. Even if they might be difficult to reach, they would still be closer than getting home, for example if Inor is in W. Tenn or Miss, make his way here. We'd put him up and help him along his way as much as we could.

We're going to have to be able to think fast on our feet, even faster if we're outside our particular comfort zone. The one thing I've learned is that you have to best the best decision, as quickly as you can. Even if it might not be the best decision, act and then adapt to what whatever you're faced with.
Indecision kills.

[pheniox17]

Inor I call that the "moment of shock" the few days after a changing event

Having contacts around the country really works in your favor when shtf, you always have a overnight port of call if needed, yea they are like minded, but knowing you, not only will you be welcomed you would help with a few jobs before you continue on the trip home :p

[DoubleA]

For what it's worth... I'm located "in or near" Sacramento CA.

[Kanman]

Some preppers are "to" security cautious. Yes I think that is possible. I agree you need to get to know another prepper a little bit first, but then you need to start opening up. Even if you don't join forces for anything, there will come a time ( I hope), when society will have to start coming together again, and won't it be nice to know who is out there and where? You may have to evacuate where you are, and if you know a fellow prepper is in one certain direction, you could head that way. They may not be able to put you up, but they could sure give you a quick rest and words of encouragement for you to continue on.

[Arizona Infidel]

The one thing that struck me at a couple of the meet-ups I have had with you all: Both Just Sayin and Old SF Guy asked my what I would do if I were away from home on business when SHTF happened. It is a question that has bugged me for some time because I travel almost every week. But as I think about it, and consider the most probable situations we will have a short window of relative normalcy. Obviously, a major sun storm or other EMP, or full-out nuclear war, all bets are off. But if the dollar fails, it is not something that is going to filter its way from Wall Street and Washington DC to Main street in a day or two. And even when it does start to cause problems in day to day life, most folks will have a normalcy bias kick in for a few days. Thus, I think for most events we are likely to experience we will have a few days to a few weeks of relative normalcy to get where we need to be and get set up.

I think back to 9/11. I was home that week (thankfully), but I had several guys at various place around the country, including one working in the World Trade Center that day. They were able to get rental cars and get back to their homes in a few days. I am hopeful that when the wheels do finally come off, we will be able to recognize it soon enough to get where we need to be. If that is not possible, I may be screwed.
I think we are starting to develop a nationwide network. That will be good for individuals who might get stuck far from home. Also might be good for people to get together if there was a catastrophic TEOTWAWKI event. Or invasion.
This might be a good idea for a subforum or something.
The network. Maybe not now. Maybe make it a VIP thing? I dunno. Just thinking out loud.

[Inor]

I think we are starting to develop a nationwide network. That will be good for individuals who might get stuck far from home. Also might be good for people to get together if there was a catastrophic TEOTWAWKI event. Or invasion.
This might be a good idea for a subforum or something.
The network. Maybe not now. Maybe make it a VIP thing? I dunno. Just thinking out loud.

Whenever I go to a town where I know one of you guys I always try to setup a meet up. If for no other reason than it is pretty boring being away from home every week. It is nice just to meet a friendly face and have somebody to talk to in the evening. So far, EVERY single member I have met from here has been at least as cool in person as they are on-line! I consider every one of them a friend in real life too. (You pricks know who you are. :D) But it also lays the groundwork in case there is a real problem too.

One of these days I hope I will get back to AZ, JAX, DFW, SeaTac and ATL. Unfortunately, right now it has been a lot of Silicon Valley trips.

[Just Sayin']

I think we are starting to develop a nationwide network. That will be good for individuals who might get stuck far from home. Also might be good for people to get together if there was a catastrophic TEOTWAWKI event. Or invasion.
This might be a good idea for a subforum or something.
The network. Maybe not now. Maybe make it a VIP thing? I dunno. Just thinking out loud.

Maybe an independent (read that as absolutely non-governmental entity) non-profit organization could provide certification that we would recognize within our community. In addition, maybe the "American Preparedness Association" or whatever could provide standardized local training classes, taught by preppers who need jobs or volunteers. At least then, we would have a better idea of who we are dealing with if they have a patch or some other form of identification. It might even be a good idea to have it's members vetted somehow.

[Arizona Infidel]

Maybe an independent (read that as absolutely non-governmental entity) non-profit organization could provide certification that we would recognize within our community. In addition, maybe the "American Preparedness Association" or whatever could provide standardized local training classes, taught by preppers who need jobs or volunteers. At least then, we would have a better idea of who we are dealing with if they have a patch or some other form of identification. It might even be a good idea to have it's members vetted somehow.
I was thinking of it being more forum based. As in this forum and the people on it. I already see a common ideology running through it with the members being on close to the same wavelength while standing together on what types of "undesirables" we want to keep out. I'm not a real big fan of national associations and accreditation and standardization.
That kind of crap tends to get political with authoritarian minded people who try to take over and it gets ruint. That in turn triggers my "who the fuck do you think you are" response which in turn triggers my "go fuck yourself" response mechanism.
I have issues with authority.

[pheniox17]

On patches I don't really see them working for you guys in the USA unless you go something like 2 monkeys going at it... (Means nothing outside this circuit)

But its more a case of lay down your own groundwork, take the time to develop a network, of forum friends and build, people like inor have more of a need to do this than people that have lived in the same location all their life

And I have said it before, in the event of a invasion just work on the small picture until the big picture shows itself (hitting small targets like infrastructure, road and rail networks can be extremely helpful to the big picture of the war, to quote a book series, "every man they take off the lines to hunt for you, is one less man on the front lines to fight")

A network (apn had ants thats a civi verson of fema) has lots of bonuses more in the rebuilding phase of a shtf event, its worth thinking about this...

But in inors case he is very well set up that if it hits the fan he has a fighting chance to get home :D

[Just Sayin']

I was just throwing sh*t against the wall to see what stuck.

[Pauls]

I have a plan - with several directions to complete it - but the plan is adaptable and so am I.