Evolution of a SHTF armed conflict

[OSFG]

I just looked it up out of curiosity. According to Wikipedia the US Military has about 1.37 million folks on active duty. And another 850,000 on reserve. Ranked second to China. I know most of them are in support or logistical roles but in a pinch the military could use them to help enforce martial law. The same source listed over 140 million men and women between the ages of 18-49 as available for service. That is a lot of people. If only a quarter of that group was pissed off about martial law and armed that is still 35,000,000. However those people don't have the equipment like tanks and aircraft. I am also unsure if very many people would even resist, considering that Obama got REELECTED. Bunch of sheep.

As a side note, this is why nobody will ever be able to conventionally invade our country. Americans typically come together when we have a common enemy. With those numbers and the amount of guns in this country, nobody stands a chance to invade us.

Your probably more accurate with your active duty numbers. I used what I last knew and paid any attention too as well as the stated goal numbers I had heard being pushed for ( i.e. Obama reducing active duty numbers down, while increasing DHS numbers). and agree that the number of former, vastly out number the current active duty.

[pheniox17]

I just looked it up out of curiosity. According to Wikipedia the US Military has about 1.37 million folks on active duty. And another 850,000 on reserve. Ranked second to China. I know most of them are in support or logistical roles but in a pinch the military could use them to help enforce martial law. The same source listed over 140 million men and women between the ages of 18-49 as available for service. That is a lot of people. If only a quarter of that group was pissed off about martial law and armed that is still 35,000,000. However those people don't have the equipment like tanks and aircraft. I am also unsure if very many people would even resist, considering that Obama got REELECTED. Bunch of sheep.

As a side note, this is why nobody will ever be able to conventionally invade our country. Americans typically come together when we have a common enemy. With those numbers and the amount of guns in this country, nobody stands a chance to invade us.

YAY you ran some numbers

Around here there was some statistic for recruiting advertising, for every 1 combat person there is 7 in support

So that drops the numbers, fitness and skill levels of those 7 (I know of some that are not range qualified, or will come close to passing a fitness test)

Also let's say new York, what's the population?? 8.4 million??

With only 1.3 million active personal... That's a tough ask (OK I picked a large city that's mostly populated by sheep but a good example number wise)

But its great that others run numbers, if you find a FEMA map... Well a region would be doable with all avalible federal assets (again a opinion but stumbled across a photo and the sizes would match something like this)

[Smokin04]

Subbing...I'll reply when I get home from work...

[James m]

People make decisions based on information. Whether that's very little information or none at all, or what someone wants you to believe.

And on a separate issue, who's to say some foreign country isn't going to make a land grab. What with all of these people dead, a reduced population and lack of resources.

[OSFG]

I agree that if we had a major internal issue that created chaos throughout America, that we could see some initial additional agitation to maintain the destabilization and continue to degrade our ability to fight a war. I think initially that would be seen as grabs outside the contiguous 48 states, predominantly with some movements against our allies in Europe or the taking of countries by Russia, China, and North Korea such as South Korea, Ukraine and other former soviet bloc countries. Then as times got worse maybe a push into pacific islands and then maybe even into Alaska and Hawaii. But any attempt to do that quickly or to attack the CONUS would quickly rally sentiment to a common enemy and serve only to slow the internal conflict. It would be a matter of timing, but it could happen. I think Iran and others would quickly move to destroy Israel and there would begin an Islamic push across South western Asia and then into south eastern Europe, with Islamic disruption in England France, Germany to keep them from aiding in any way.

In all I worry that any foreign military actions done during a National catastrophe in the US could quickly lead to global war with all the various facets of previous conflicts converging. Religion, Geo-political positions, resource grabs, Ethnic cleansing, World domination...right on down to the tribal disputes and racial divides being ignited world wide. Because we must face the truth...our global economy is interconnected. And if we slip into financial collapse so to does the world and with that comes wars. However even without a financial collapse...our inability to unitedly confront enemies of our allies leaves them a target.

I again state, I do not think this is likely to occur, only a worse case scenario.

[Arklatex]

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/sa...partments.html

Now let's look at police. According to this date from 2012 the rates of police per 10k citizens averaged 17 nation wide. That is 1 officer for nearly 600 people. Even combined with the military they are still completely outnumbered.

For the sake of discussion I think worst case scenario should be used. Grid down for whatever reason: emp, cyber attack etc.

I think yall are correct that most of the military and law enforcement will try to keep the peace and stay on the job. For awhile... Maybe 6 months? Eventually it will get so bad that they have to withdraw to one area of the country to protect the government. It will be a logistical nightmare keeping the troops supplied and morale will be low. Especially if the grid is down. Also in a grid down situation many will starve and be without lifesaving medication such as insulin. So they will be dealing with that situation as well. It will be complete and total chaos. Especially in the big cities.

[DerBiermeister]

I agree that if we had a major internal issue that created chaos throughout America, that we could see some initial additional agitation to maintain the destabilization and continue to degrade our ability to fight a war. I think initially that would be seen as grabs outside the contiguous 48 states, predominantly with some movements against our allies in Europe or the taking of countries by Russia, China, and North Korea such as South Korea, Ukraine and other former soviet bloc countries. Then as times got worse maybe a push into pacific islands and then maybe even into Alaska and Hawaii. But any attempt to do that quickly or to attack the CONUS would quickly rally sentiment to a common enemy and serve only to slow the internal conflict. It would be a matter of timing, but it could happen. I think Iran and others would quickly move to destroy Israel and there would begin an Islamic push across South western Asia and then into south eastern Europe, with Islamic disruption in England France, Germany to keep them from aiding in any way.

In all I worry that any foreign military actions done during a National catastrophe in the US could quickly lead to global war with all the various facets of previous conflicts converging. Religion, Geo-political positions, resource grabs, Ethnic cleansing, World domination...right on down to the tribal disputes and racial divides being ignited world wide. Because we must face the truth...our global economy is interconnected. And if we slip into financial collapse so to does the world and with that comes wars. However even without a financial collapse...our inability to unitedly confront enemies of our allies leaves them a target.

I again state, I do not think this is likely to occur, only a worse case scenario.

Geez, you're a real bundle of joy today! LOL