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Thread: A really bad sign or a really good opportunity?

  1. #101
    VIP Member! StratBastard's Avatar
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    Silver continues to slowly drop, @ $23.64 today.
    A.K.A. StratBastard
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  3. #102
    ədˈminəˌstrātər Inor's Avatar
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    Last winter (end of February/beginning of March) I won an auction to buy a piece of land across the road from us for back taxes. At the time, the county told me I had to pay the tax on the land for 4 more years before I could foreclose on the title and transfer the title to my name and "officially own the land".

    Today, we got a letter from the county requesting the tax payment for the 2023 taxes in June. (Usually our property tax payments are due in October.). I did not understand why they wanted money now so I called them to get the skinny. It seems our county is running short on cash flows from property taxes because so many properties are going into tax default. So they are offering a one-time deal if we pay now, instead of October. They will cut one year off the foreclosure process. So we pay them the tax 5 months early and get the title in 2 1/2 years instead of 3 1/2?!? HELL YEAH! - Sign me up!!

    But that also has me salivating for what other deals might be starting to come down the pike soon... So keep some cash on hand boys and girls to be able to take advantage of these kinds of things when they are offered! I think this is just the beginning of some really fun and profitable times in the very near future!
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  5. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inor View Post
    Last winter (end of February/beginning of March) I won an auction to buy a piece of land across the road from us for back taxes. At the time, the county told me I had to pay the tax on the land for 4 more years before I could foreclose on the title and transfer the title to my name and "officially own the land".

    Today, we got a letter from the county requesting the tax payment for the 2023 taxes in June. (Usually our property tax payments are due in October.). I did not understand why they wanted money now so I called them to get the skinny. It seems our county is running short on cash flows from property taxes because so many properties are going into tax default. So they are offering a one-time deal if we pay now, instead of October. They will cut one year off the foreclosure process. So we pay them the tax 5 months early and get the title in 2 1/2 years instead of 3 1/2?!? HELL YEAH! - Sign me up!!

    But that also has me salivating for what other deals might be starting to come down the pike soon... So keep some cash on hand boys and girls to be able to take advantage of these kinds of things when they are offered! I think this is just the beginning of some really fun and profitable times in the very near future!
    That's a really good opportunity for you, I say jump on it.
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  7. #104
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    Silver continues down to $23.30 today. EDIT: now $23.18
    Last edited by StratBastard; 05-24-2023 at 08:40 PM.
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    premium sale on 5 oz silver flag bars... a little more palatable

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  10. #106
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    For the first time in 11 FOMC meetings, the Fed decided to pause interest rate hikes and inflation is "under control". WOO HOO!!! But the devil is in the details... In Powell's remarks, he also stated to be prepared for at least 2 more rate hikes this year, implying 1/4% each time.

    Don't buy into it! This is complete bullshit!

    Remember '06. They did almost the exact same thing trying to stop the housing bubble from bursting. Interest rates then were about the same as they are now. Housing started to crash, so the Fed paused rate hikes and even had a couple meetings where they dropped rates. (As I recall, they did two 1/4% drops in late '06.). Then all hell broke loose in late '07 and early '08. They are running almost the exact same playbook now.

    The big difference now from '06, however, is now we already have banks failing. Commercial real estate is about to explode in a HUGE wave of foreclosures due to interest rates resetting this fall and all next year. The big layoffs have already started. The BIG difference is in '06, at this stage of the game, the economy was still mostly pretty strong except for residential real estate. Now, the entire economy is barely hanging on and the really bad stuff has not even started yet.

    Hang onto your butts. This is not going to be pretty.
    Last edited by Inor; 06-15-2023 at 09:11 AM.
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    Sounds like san fran going to go down commercial real estate first... seen several stories where several top end hotels and a mall have already had plug pulled to save losses.
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  14. #108
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    10K for a local used car lot with no inventory.
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  15. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jester-ND View Post
    Sounds like san fran going to go down commercial real estate first... seen several stories where several top end hotels and a mall have already had plug pulled to save losses.
    That is bad, but what is FAR worse is the commercial MORTGAGES and that is nation-wide.

    Commercial mortgages are very different than residential mortgages. Unlike the mortgage on a home that is usually 20-30 years (soon to be 40 years I am betting - but that is for a different thread.), commercial mortgages are usually for 5 years. That means, those mortgage with super-low interest rates written before the 'rona are going to be expiring soon and they will have to re-negotiate a new 5 year mortgage at much higher interest rates. Since a lot of those properties are on the bubble of being able to cash-flow them at 3% interest, they are going to be bleeding red ink when they have to renegotiate a new mortgage at 7-8% (even if they are at full occupancy, which most are not).

    And guess what... All those commercial mortgages are bundled up and sold as corporate bonds just the same as the residential mortgages were in 2008 when they blew up. And who owns all those bonds? Banks, pension funds, etc. Just like the residential Mortgage Backed Securities that blew up in 2008.
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  17. #110
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    Silver drops to $22.88 an ounce tonight.
    A.K.A. StratBastard
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