You will own nothing and you will be happy

[KnuteFartne]

New construction continues at a strong pace. Un-phukcing-believable if you ask me. Doesn't make sense, but it does since fundamentals don't matter anymore in clown world.
https://www.census.gov/construction/...ent/index.html

Look into "Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing". All your questions should be answered. Also CA just started a new program to help "disadvantaged" people buy new homes. Gavin Newsom will pay the down payment (meaning I get to pay the down payment) and will be in co-ownership with the family. Once the family goes to sell the CA government gets to tell the family what they can ask for the house. A very Marxist idea. Look for it to expand to other states.

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[Inor]

New construction continues at a strong pace. Un-phukcing-believable if you ask me. Doesn't make sense, but it does since fundamentals don't matter anymore in clown world.
https://www.census.gov/construction/...ent/index.html

You would know a lot better than me, but...

I am wondering if a lot of these big home builders had sunk a ton of money into land for developments during the big times during 'rona. Now, I notice a lot of them in Tucson are offering big incentives and buy downs against the increased mortgage rates just to get out of the inventory. So is it the builders just got so deep in land etc., they are building and moving homes as quick as they can just to get out of the trade before it all blows up? Maybe?

[Slippy]

You would know a lot better than me, but...

I am wondering if a lot of these big home builders had sunk a ton of money into land for developments during the big times during 'rona. Now, I notice a lot of them in Tucson are offering big incentives and buy downs against the increased mortgage rates just to get out of the inventory. So is it the builders just got so deep in land etc., they are building and moving homes as quick as they can just to get out of the trade before it all blows up? Maybe?

It sort of defies logic, to me. Take DR Horton, the largest US Homebuilder. On a '23 revenue pace of $30 billion. Yes, its down from last year's $33 billion but damn, their last 5 years were phenomenal, doubling their revenue since 2018

https://investor.drhorton.com/~/medi...ual-report.pdf

I think the bottom line on homebuilding is that demand is crazy good and most people don't give two rat's asses about incurring debt at any interest rate %.

Risk doesn't mean what it used to mean, maybe? Who knows anymore? I damn sure don't.

[MountainGirl]

Add "exponential growth, up the curve, tipping point" into all ideas and most guesses are pretty good, imo.

[Prepared One]

It sort of defies logic, to me. Take DR Horton, the largest US Homebuilder. On a '23 revenue pace of $30 billion. Yes, its down from last year's $33 billion but damn, their last 5 years were phenomenal, doubling their revenue since 2018

https://investor.drhorton.com/~/medi...ual-report.pdf

I think the bottom line on homebuilding is that demand is crazy good and most people don't give two rat's asses about incurring debt at any interest rate %.

Risk doesn't mean what it used to mean, maybe? Who knows anymore? I damn sure don't.

Risk? Dementia Joe and our tax dollars will be happy to bail you out. At least that's what most young people are led to believe.

[Inor]

It sort of defies logic, to me. Take DR Horton, the largest US Homebuilder. On a '23 revenue pace of $30 billion. Yes, its down from last year's $33 billion but damn, their last 5 years were phenomenal, doubling their revenue since 2018

https://investor.drhorton.com/~/medi...ual-report.pdf

I think the bottom line on homebuilding is that demand is crazy good and most people don't give two rat's asses about incurring debt at any interest rate %.

Risk doesn't mean what it used to mean, maybe? Who knows anymore? I damn sure don't.

I am waiting for some bank to start offering 40 year mortgages. You know it is GOING to happen. When it does, that will signal when they have their dream of "you will own nothing and be happy". (It will also signal the start of the real hyperinflation.)

On the upside, it will also signal when guys like us can go for the juggler buying bad assets for cash and flipping them for insane profits.

[MountainGirl]

This might fit in - as it applies specifically to housing:
12 min vid.
Federal Home Loan Bank - 2nd wave of crisis coming

[Slippy]

You asked...

40 year mortgages!

FUBAR
https://www.hud.gov/press/press_rele.../hud_no_22_070
https://www.wesh.com/article/do-you-...gage/44399418#

I am waiting for some bank to start offering 40 year mortgages. You know it is GOING to happen. When it does, that will signal when they have their dream of "you will own nothing and be happy". (It will also signal the start of the real hyperinflation.)

On the upside, it will also signal when guys like us can go for the juggler buying bad assets for cash and flipping them for insane profits.

[Inor]

You asked...

40 year mortgages!

FUBAR
https://www.hud.gov/press/press_rele.../hud_no_22_070
https://www.wesh.com/article/do-you-...gage/44399418#

Sharpen your knives and make money while you can because we are well and truly fucked now...

[MountainGirl]

You asked...

40 year mortgages!

FUBAR
https://www.hud.gov/press/press_rele.../hud_no_22_070
https://www.wesh.com/article/do-you-...gage/44399418#

Interesting that the HUD link ^^ is from 15 months ago; of course they knew this "need" was coming.