A really bad sign or a really good opportunity?

[Inor]

India dials up silver purchasing. Already purchased more in 2024 than the entire year 2023.

India imported a record 4,172 metric tons of silver from January to April this year. This marks a staggering increase from the 455 tons imported during the same period in the previous year. For comparison, India’s total silver imports for 2023 amounted to 3,625 tons.

That's a staggering 7797 metric tons of physical silver no longer available with demand rising simultaneously.

That's 275 MILLION ounces. There are 2.78 billion ounces circulating or in vaults out there currently.

India has 10% of the world physical supply.

Attachment 30501

Since your post on 6/6 I have been studying up on this a bit, trying to figure out what they are up to. What I have been able to learn so far...

The silver India has been purchasing for about the last 6 months has mostly been for industrial use. They seem to be buying in bulk just to have on hand, mostly for lithium battery and EV production as near as I can tell. They have also been buying it to hold in reserve. That is, they are buying FAR more than they are using. I think they have been trying to build up a significant stockpile so they are not forced to buy it on the open markets if prices/premiums take off again or if it becomes difficult to get on the open market.

It also sounds like they are going to start tapering off on their purchases over the next few months as they have stacked as much as they want in reserve for industrial use. That also seems to fit with what Jester is saying with premiums coming down a little bit.

From everything I am seeing/reading about the "global economy" (especially China and eastern Europe), it sounds like they may be going back into recession which will further dampen industrial demand.

That may push prices down a bit. I cannot get a real good read on it because mostly they just report total sales not broken out by industrial demand vs retail demand. Tracking silver demand vs gold demand (gold being mostly sold for investment, not industrial) leads me to believe the recent big purchases of silver are mostly industrial. So, I am thinking we may see silver back to around $25 for a short time before it takes the next leg up.

Thoughts?

[StratBastard]

Since your post on 6/6 I have been studying up on this a bit, trying to figure out what they are up to. What I have been able to learn so far...

The silver India has been purchasing for about the last 6 months has mostly been for industrial use. They seem to be buying in bulk just to have on hand, mostly for lithium battery and EV production as near as I can tell. They have also been buying it to hold in reserve. That is, they are buying FAR more than they are using. I think they have been trying to build up a significant stockpile so they are not forced to buy it on the open markets if prices/premiums take off again or if it becomes difficult to get on the open market.

It also sounds like they are going to start tapering off on their purchases over the next few months as they have stacked as much as they want in reserve for industrial use. That also seems to fit with what Jester is saying with premiums coming down a little bit.

From everything I am seeing/reading about the "global economy" (especially China and eastern Europe), it sounds like they may be going back into recession which will further dampen industrial demand.

That may push prices down a bit. I cannot get a real good read on it because mostly they just report total sales not broken out by industrial demand vs retail demand. Tracking silver demand vs gold demand (gold being mostly sold for investment, not industrial) leads me to believe the recent big purchases of silver are mostly industrial. So, I am thinking we may see silver back to around $25 for a short time before it takes the next leg up.

Thoughts?

India absolutely has eyes on becoming a major global manufacturer of batteries and photovoltaic/solar products. So yeah I agree they are buying it for industrial usage. It is silver to be consumed and off the market. When this starts happening... that we are utilizing silver faster than we can pull it out of the ground... then we'll see the big spike. Not there yet. We pull about 804 million troy ounces out of mines a year globally, while using 508 million ounces for industry each year.